I have one friend who's always overly optimistic about the stock market and another who's always predicting a crash. Whom should I believe?
Neither. Some people—perma‐bulls—are always predicting that the stock market will go up, and others—perma‐bears—are always predicting that it will go down. Both groups are misguided because, as history shows, the market randomly and unpredictably goes up and down. This historical reality doesn't stop stubborn bulls and bears from fixating on events in ways that are consistent with their views.