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Persistent Outperformance is Extremely Rare

Research from S&P Dow Jones consistently shows that mutual funds that have outperformed their peers very rarely continue to outperform in the future. When news outlets and magazines make claims about the top funds to buy, they unfortunately are making most of their recommendations based on past performance. However, when it comes to the “best new funds,” past performance most definitely does not predict future performance. In fact, there is a better chance of rolling double sixes five times in a row than the top performing funds staying at the top of the leaderboard for five years.